Pair #7367

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-PREE

The Masters: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4299

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 250581

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish overall. These are independent across different scopes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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