Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-PREE
The Masters: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4299
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-PREE
Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 250581
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.1900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:33Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish overall. These are independent across different scopes.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A