Pair #7356

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10393

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-PREE

Will Patrick Reed finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 53237

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Reed could win a different major (not the Masters) in 2026 without being the top US golfer at the Masters. Being top US golfer at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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