Pair #7353

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10393

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 549162

YES ask: 0.0320
NO ask: 0.9730
Last: 0.0280

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R1). Leading R1 of the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0220
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -8.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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