Pair #735

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12933

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3255023

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:54Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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