Pair #7346

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AZEV

Will Alexander Zverev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31714

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07GARZVE-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev win the Garin vs Zverev : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 48201

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins the Garin vs Zverev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:49Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning this Monte Carlo match (different tournament), and winning this Monte Carlo match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -43.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -48.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue