Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-AZVE
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?
Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 3434
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alexander Zverev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPMATCH-26APR07GARZVE-ZVE
Will Alexander Zverev win the Garin vs Zverev : Round Of 32 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 48201
YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alexander Zverev wins the Garin vs Zverev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:49Z
Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Jun 30, 2026 does not require winning this specific Monte Carlo match, and winning this match does not guarantee being #1 ranked on Jun 30. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.97%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.8900
Days to maturity:
29
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.19%
BELOW HURDLE