Pair #7344

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07ALCBAE-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Alcaraz vs Baez : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 42784

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Alcaraz vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR07ALCBAE-1-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 823

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the match does not necessitate winning set 1 — Alcaraz could lose set 1 and still win the match in sets 2 and 3. And winning set 1 does not necessitate winning the match — he could win set 1 and lose the match. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue