Pair #7343

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07ALCBAE-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Alcaraz vs Baez : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 42784

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Alcaraz vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 379968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:49Z

Reasoning: The French Open and the Monte Carlo Round of 32 are separate tournaments. Winning the French Open does not require winning this Monte Carlo match, and winning this match does not imply winning the French Open. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue