Pair #7342

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR07ALCBAE-1-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 823

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 379968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning a set in a Monte Carlo match (different tournaments entirely), and winning that set does not imply winning the French Open. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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