Pair #7341

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-CALC

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 11086

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07ALCBAE-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Alcaraz vs Baez : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 42784

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Alcaraz vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:49Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Jun 30, 2026 does not require winning this Monte Carlo match, and winning this match does not guarantee being #1 ranked on Jun 30. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 29
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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