Pair #734

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3255023

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Justin Thomas wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3657

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:54Z

Reasoning: The Masters is one of the four golf majors. If Justin Thomas wins the Masters, he has won a major in 2026, so KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO must resolve YES. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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