Pair #7338

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-CALC

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 11290

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR07ALCBAE-1-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 823

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins set 1 in the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:49Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Dec 31, 2026 does not require winning any specific set, and winning a set in a Monte Carlo match does not necessitate being #1 ranked at year end. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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