Pair #7337

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMCMMEN-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters?

Series: KXMCMMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26192

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07HUMSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Humbert vs Sinner : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 50560

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the Humbert vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z

Reasoning: To win the Monte Carlo Masters, Sinner must win every match in the tournament, including the Round of 32 match against Humbert. If Sinner wins Monte Carlo, he must have won the Humbert match. The reverse does not hold — winning the Humbert match does not guarantee winning the whole tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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