Pair #7333

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1165209

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMCMMEN-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters?

Series: KXMCMMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26192

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning Monte Carlo, and winning Monte Carlo does not require winning the French Open. These are separate tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7800
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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