Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR07HUMSIN-1-SIN
Will Jannik Sinner win set 1 in the Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 1595
YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins set 1 in the Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXFOMEN-26-SIN
Will Jannik Sinner win the French Open?
Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1165209
YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z
Reasoning: Winning the French Open has no logical connection to winning set 1 of a Monte Carlo Round of 32 match. These are completely separate tournaments. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A