Pair #7331

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 63442

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07HUMSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Humbert vs Sinner : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 50560

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the Humbert vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical dependency on winning a Monte Carlo Round of 32 match against Humbert. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -29.26% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -33.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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