Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN
Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 60556
YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXMCMMEN-26-JSIN
Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters?
Series: KXMCMMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26192
YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z
Reasoning: Monte Carlo is not a Grand Slam, so winning Monte Carlo does not imply winning a Grand Slam. Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning Monte Carlo. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
79.84%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.7100
Days to maturity:
213
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
+75.56%
PROFITABLE