Pair #7329

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 60556

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR07HUMSIN-1-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win set 1 in the Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 1595

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins set 1 in the Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning set 1 of a Monte Carlo Round of 32 match. Monte Carlo is not a Grand Slam. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -15.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -19.35% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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