Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN
Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?
Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 24613
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPMATCH-26APR07HUMSIN-SIN
Will Jannik Sinner win the Humbert vs Sinner : Round Of 32 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 50560
YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins the Humbert vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z
Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Jun 30, 2026 does not require winning the Humbert match, and winning the Humbert match does not necessitate being #1 ranked. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
28.95%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9800
Days to maturity:
29
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
+24.73%
PROFITABLE