Pair #7326

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 24613

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR07HUMSIN-1-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win set 1 in the Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 1595

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins set 1 in the Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:27Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Jun 30, 2026 does not require winning set 1 of a Monte Carlo Round of 32 match, and winning that set does not necessitate being #1 ranked. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 185.61% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9200
Days to maturity: 29
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +181.39% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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