Pair #7325

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3337

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07HUMSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Humbert vs Sinner : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 50560

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the Humbert vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:04Z

Reasoning: Being year-end #1 ranked does not require winning any specific match in April, and winning a single match does not guarantee year-end #1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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