Pair #7324

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3337

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMCMMEN-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters?

Series: KXMCMMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26192

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:04Z

Reasoning: Being year-end #1 does not require winning Monte Carlo, and winning Monte Carlo does not guarantee year-end #1. These are correlated but neither logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -54.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue