Pair #7320

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 222372

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:04Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 20 in round 1 (a player could have a poor round 1 and recover). Finishing top 20 in round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish overall. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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