Pair #732

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3255023

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:35Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing top 10 in one major, but Event B requires top-10 finishes in ALL 4 majors. Winning the Masters alone does not guarantee top-10 finishes in the other three majors. Conversely, finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -0.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -4.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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