Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JROS
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9150
YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JUR
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 222372
YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:04Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 5 overall (performance across all rounds determines final standing). Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A