Pair #7317

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9150

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 222372

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:04Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 5 overall (performance across all rounds determines final standing). Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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