Pair #7316

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 15667

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9700

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Rules

If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS

Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:04Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not imply being the top European (other Europeans could score better). Being the top European requires completing the full tournament, which requires making the cut, but Rose could make the cut and still not be the best European. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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