Pair #7314

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 222372

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 15667

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:02:04Z

Reasoning: If Justin Rose finishes top 5 in the tournament, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish top 5 without surviving the cut). However, making the cut does not imply finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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