Pair #7313

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 15667

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9150

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Making the cut depends on the cumulative score after Round 2, not specifically on Round 1 performance alone. A top 10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee making the cut (could play poorly in Round 2). Making the cut does not imply a top 10 Round 1 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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