Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS
Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JROS
Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 779826
YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:42Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 pertains to a single round and does not determine the overall tournament outcome for Europeans. Being top European overall does not require leading Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9160
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A