Pair #7311

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JROS

Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 779826

YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: If Rose leads after Round 1, he is in position 1, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5090
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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