Pair #7307

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS

Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 205850

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not guarantee Rose is the best European (another European could finish higher). Being the top European does not guarantee a top 20 overall finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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