Pair #7306

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 205850

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:42Z

Reasoning: Overall top 20 finish and Round 1 top 20 finish are independent: one can finish top 20 overall after a poor Round 1, or finish top 20 in Round 1 but miss the cut or finish outside top 20 overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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