Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS
Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JUR
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 185897
YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:42Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not guarantee Rose is the best European (another European could finish higher). And being the top European does not guarantee a top 10 finish overall (could be outside top 10 but still best among Europeans).
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.6600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A