Pair #7301

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 185897

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z

Reasoning: Overall top 10 does not require top 20 in Round 1 (could start outside top 20 and rally). Top 20 in Round 1 does not guarantee overall top 10. These measure different scopes with no logical necessity between them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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