Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455
YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JUR
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 185897
YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z
Reasoning: Overall top 10 does not require top 20 in Round 1 (could start outside top 20 and rally). Top 20 in Round 1 does not guarantee overall top 10. These measure different scopes with no logical necessity between them.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A