Pair #730

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1989

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17891

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player can start slowly and finish strongly. Conversely, a top-10 Round 1 does not guarantee a top-5 overall finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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