Pair #73

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-DEN

What will be LeBron James's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z
Volume: 17875

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If LeBron James's next team is Denver before Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNBABEST-26-DEN

Who will have the best record in the league?

Series: KXRECORDNBABEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4499

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver has the best regular season record in the league in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:32Z

Reasoning: LeBron joining Denver does not guarantee they have the best record in the league, and Denver having the best record does not require LeBron to be on the team. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -2.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 145
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -6.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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