Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS
Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z
Reasoning: Round 1 top 5 says nothing about Rose's performance relative to other European golfers over the full tournament. Being the top European in the tournament doesn't require a top 5 Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A