Pair #7297

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS

Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z

Reasoning: Round 1 top 5 says nothing about Rose's performance relative to other European golfers over the full tournament. Being the top European in the tournament doesn't require a top 5 Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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