Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455
YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z
Reasoning: If Rose finishes top 5 in Round 1, he is necessarily also in the top 20 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A