Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JUR
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 222372
YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z
Reasoning: Top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee top 5 overall (four rounds total). Top 5 overall does not require top 5 in Round 1. These measure different scopes with no logical necessity between them.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A