Pair #7293

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 15667

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z

Reasoning: Top 5 in Round 1 doesn't guarantee making the cut (cut is after Round 2, and Rose could play poorly in Round 2). Making the cut doesn't require a top 5 Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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