Pair #7292

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JROS

Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 779826

YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:01:19Z

Reasoning: If Rose leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 1, which is within the top 5. However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not imply leading (could be 2nd-5th). So the lead implies top 5, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1090
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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