Pair #729

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17891

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12933

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 as well. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not guarantee a top-5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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