Pair #7289

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37616

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS

Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Rose could win a major other than The Masters, or could win The Masters but so could another European outscore him — actually if he wins The Masters he is the top European, but he may win a different major. No universal implication holds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -14.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -18.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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