Pair #7287

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37616

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 222372

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Rose could win a major other than The Masters. Even winning The Masters does not strictly require finishing top 5 (he wins it outright, so he'd finish 1st which is top 5, but winning another major doesn't imply top 5 at The Masters). However, if he wins The Masters specifically he is top 5, but he could win any other major instead. No universal implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -49.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -53.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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