Pair #7286

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 36687

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9150

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Rose could win a different major and not play well in R1 of The Masters, or win The Masters without being top 10 after R1. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -30.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -35.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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