Pair #7285

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 36687

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 15667

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Rose could win a major other than The Masters (e.g., U.S. Open), in which case he need not have made the cut at The Masters. And making the cut at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No necessary implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue