Pair #7284

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 36687

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Rose could win a major other than The Masters, making R1 of The Masters irrelevant. Even winning The Masters does not require finishing top 5 in R1. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -15.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -19.35% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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