Pair #7282

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: A top 10 final finish across all 4 majors does not require finishing top 20 in Round 1 of The Masters specifically. And finishing top 20 in R1 does not necessitate top 10 final finishes in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -91.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -95.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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