Pair #7281

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 222372

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors means he finishes top 10 at The Masters, but not necessarily top 5. Finishing top 5 at The Masters does not guarantee top 10 finishes at the other 3 majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -88.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -92.52% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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