Pair #7280

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9150

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors (final tournament results) does not necessitate finishing top 10 in Round 1 of The Masters — he could start slowly and recover. And finishing top 10 in R1 does not necessitate a top 10 final finish in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -70.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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